A Misstep by Ireland’s Prime Minister Simon Harris Muddies Election

For weeks, the Republic of Ireland looked like a rare Western democracy bent on defying the global trend of tossing out its government. The two centrist parties that have governed Ireland in a coalition since 2020, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, appeared to be on cruise control to lock up enough votes to stay in power.

But now, just days before voters cast their ballots on Friday, Ireland’s election has suddenly gotten more interesting. An uncharacteristic misstep by the popular prime minister, Simon Harris, and a bounce back in the polls by the main opposition party, Sinn Fein, has churned the waters.

Mr. Harris, a 38-year-old career politician who has been an energetic leader of Fine Gael, is under intense pressure after a brusque exchange with a voter was caught on camera and went viral on social media. The episode, analysts said, could cost Mr. Harris his job as Taoiseach, or prime minister.

When the votes are counted, political analysts say, the most likely outcome is still a unity coalition of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, perhaps augmented by the left-wing Greens or Labour Party, which would enable Ireland’s big parties to cobble together another majority in Ireland’s parliament.

But Fine Gael’s poll numbers were sinking even before Mr. Harris was stopped last Friday evening in a supermarket north of Cork by Charlotte Fallon, who protested that his government was not doing enough to support those, like her, who work with disabled people. Tight-lipped and tense, Mr. Harris denied Ms. Fallon’s claims, offered her a curt handshake, and turned away.

“Keep shaking hands and pretend you’re a good man,” a visibly distressed Ms. Fallon said. “You’re not a good man.”