The World Economy Awaits Trump’s First Round of Tariffs

the-world-economy-awaits-trump’s-first-round-of-tariffs

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Economists, policymakers and investors are bracing for a trade war that has been brewing since Election Day.

President Trump has promised to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China beginning on Saturday.Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Trump’s threats to enact stiff tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on Saturday have left the world trading system on edge as international policymakers and markets wait to see whether Mr. Trump will follow through on actions that could set off a destabilizing global trade war.

Mr. Trump has promised tariffs of 25 percent on Canada and Mexico and 10 percent on China, punishments he says are necessary to halt the flow of migrants and drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the United States.

It remains to be seen whether Mr. Trump will act on that threat and, if he does, what imports will be subject to his levies.

Mr. Trump’s advisers have been weighing different scenarios, like tariffs that would apply to specific sectors, such as steel and aluminum, or levies that would be announced but not go into effect for several months, according to people familiar with the planning.

But it is not clear what the president has decided. Canadian and Mexican officials have been scrambling to persuade Mr. Trump to hold off on the tariffs, engaging in last-minute talks with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and trying to show the efforts they are making to police the border. Auto and energy companies are pushing the White House and the administration hard not to apply tariffs, one of the people said.

President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico told reporters on Friday that the Mexican government had been working for months on a plan to react to possible tariffs. “We are prepared for any scenario,” she said, adding that Mexico was “doing everything in our power” to prevent tariffs. “What do we want? That dialogue with respect prevail.”


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