Wednesday Briefing

The world awaits a smoke signal

Scores of cardinals will file into the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel today to cast ballots for the next pope, in one of the world’s oldest dramas. They will be sequestered until a successor to Pope Francis is chosen. No one knows how long the conclave will last.

“Once they are in, we’ll know practically nothing,” Jason Horowitz, our Rome bureau chief, said. “But the puffs of black smoke, which signify an inconclusive election, will tell us something, too.”

“The first vote is generally symbolic, testing the strength of candidates, but if the election goes deep into the second day with only black smoke, we will know that the cardinals are having a hard time reaching a consensus,” Jason said. “Eventually the smoke will turn white and the new pope will be revealed on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica.” Here’s more about how the pope will be chosen.

A lot of uncertainty: The conclave is always unpredictable, but the change in the makeup of the cardinals under Francis, who began his tenure in 2013, makes this one even more so.

The contenders: The Vatican’s No. 2, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, is seen as a possible candidate to succeed Francis and someone who could provide continuity. Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, a liberal-leaning cardinal from the Philippines, has for years been deemed a front-runner. He would be the first pope from Southeast Asia. Here are the other possible candidates.

Related:

• In a mix of fascination and possible blasphemy, social media platforms have been flooded with videos and memes about the conclave.

• The people who will choose the next pope have been holding what amounts to a referendum on Pope Francis’ legacy: whether to follow his lead, turn back or find some compromise between the two.